As promised - here are my Week 3 picks. Last week (straight up only) I was 12-4. (I'm giving both spread picks, AND straight up picks - because that's how I roll.
BOLD teams are home. All straight up picks are
gut calls.)
Sunday September 27, 2009
1:00PM/ET
Lions (+6) OVER Redskins; Lions (+0) OVER Redskins
Maybe this is a mistake - to go Lions with points AND Lions straight up?! The facts are this: this team is YOUNG, has 19 straight losses, is playing a 1-1 Washington team who's primary running back and quarterback either have injuries or have been inconsistent, and this Lions team is high scoring. Matthew Stafford could be this decades Peyton Manning - gets drafted to a seemingly bad team, always has offensive talent but is always behind because of poor defense. Don't mistake this pick as a simple vote of no confidence for the Redskins (but it is SORT of that), I think this Lions team is due. Apparently they're going to be blacked out from local television because of low stadium attendance - I have no idea how that works, but it's got to piss some people off. Stafford, Kevin Smith (running back, not actor/screenwriter/director), and the Megatron, aka CalJohn (Calvin Johnson), are very talented, and they get the Lions a win. If Campbell doesn't get his act together against the Lions this week, I have to believe it's not going to happen. That said, if he does well, the Redskins win - he won't do well.
Rams (+6.5) OVER Packers; Packers (+0) OVER Rams
I think this game is close, I don't know - it's a gut call. The Packers defense is looking very good, maybe like the best in the league (or at least conference). Aaron Rodgers has been playing very well, as Ryan Grant has been running well. I think the Rams defense is overlooked and this will be close.
Vikings (-7) OVER 49ers; Vikings (+0) OVER 49ers
Vikings are home, and Brett Favre has yet to go into "Gunslinger Mode" - the dude is actually playing conservatively. To me this is a matchup of the running backs. My opinion: Gore vs Minnesota's D-Line is not as productive as ADP (the GOOD Adrian Peterson) vs the '9ers. Forget about the back problems for now, because even beyond ADP is Chester Taylor. He won't ever take the starting spot from him, but he is hands down the best backup running back in the league. I don't know why, I'm thinking blowout.
Falcons (+4) OVER Patriots; Falcons (+0) OVER Patriots
I go back to what I said last week - the Patriots defense isn't as good as everyone thinks. At the same time, the Falcons defense is about as bad as everyone thinks... yikes, maybe I want to take that back! Matt Ryan airing it up to Tony G (back problems, shmack problems), and Roddy White, with Michael Turner yet to have a big back kind of game? Let's roll the dice. Brady still doesn't look like he's back to his 2007 form, and when the chips are down, the running backs won't run the ball as well as they'll need them too.
Titans (+2.5) OVER Jets; Titans (+0) OVER Jets
If I hear one word about "...the former Titans of New York playing against the current Titans of Tennessee..." I think I might just rip my ears off my head, and dig in with my fingers to make sure I got all of the drum out. Titans are winless, and I called that shit last week. Jets are undefeated, which I'm enjoying. I'd love to see the Jets win again, but this is a pesky offense - Chris Johnson is one of the best in the league, and Collins is thought to be terrible, while his actual performance is only slightly terrible. The Jets look good, but Sanchez has yet to get the Jets through a really tough game - Week 1 the Texans couldn't move the ball, and last week Brady's QB Rating was around 55 by the end of the game. I think Collins does well enough to win, even though I think the Jets defense IS the best in the league. They're really a complete defense, and they're really fun to watch. Best interception I've seen in years.
Chiefs (+9.5) OVER Eagles; Eagles (+0) OVER Chiefs
I don't like the Eagles in general, but I really am not a fan when they have DNabb out, Westbrook questionable, and 3 "able-bodied" quarterbacks on the roster. I just don't think that the Chiefs are that bad, and Cassel looks like he is about 85-90% back to health. I'll take the Chiefs with the points, but the Eagles at home probably hold out - Larry Johnson has been lack luster as of yet, and he is not going to get it going against the Eagles. This will be close for sure, but in the end the Eagles have to win this game.
Ravens (-13.5) OVER Browns; Ravens (+0) OVER Browns
Another "old versus new" matchup who's commentary I could do without - the now-Ravens leaving Cleveland is relatively fresh in everyone's mind though, so I can see why it makes sense. I still think the now-Browns should be something other than Browns, because everyone knows it's not the same franchise. STUPID. For their stupidity I give them the loss this week, even with the almost 2 touchdowns worth of points. Idiots. But I also do it because the Ravens defense looked good last week against a good offense in San Diego, and Joe Flacco and Co. are playing out of their minds. Once Willis McGahee's hip falls out, we'll see what they can do...
Texans (-4) OVER Jaguars; Texans (+0) OVER Jaguars
Same thing I said last week about Jack Del Rio's Jaguars, and same thing I said about the Texans too. The Texans ARE good, and David Garrard isn't good enough to air it out from behind. Still not sold on MJD being a premiere back.
Buccaneers (+7) OVER Giants; Giants (+0) OVER Buccaneers
I just don't think the Giants are going to cover the spread. Kenny Phillips went down like Rachel Nichols when she applied for a job at ESPN. BAM! Justin Tuck is banged up because of a bitch Cowboy play (how was that guy not fined for being a fucking pussy?! Honestly?!), and I'm not sold on the Giants chances this year. I live and die BIG BLUE, but they are going to have to cover the spread on Tampa.
4:00PM/ET
Bears (-2) OVER Seahawks; Bears (+0) OVER Seahawks
Matt Hasselbeck is out (most likely) with a broken rib - this rib is high on his back and affecting his throwing motion. Ribs are kind of like smaller toes - you can't do much about it except deal with the pain and let it heal, except they insanely painful and it hurts to breathe. I think he'll be out for 4-6 weeks. Seneca Wallace isn't very good. Bears are doing work.
Bills (+5.5) OVER Saints; Bills (+0) OVER Saints
You'd think I'd learn my lesson last week - don't go against this team until they lose. I don't subscribe to the Bill Simmons self-help seminars of bitchery! I'm going to man up and say the Bills do it straight up (that's what she said) against the Saints. Here's why: Bills defense isn't that bad; the Saints defense - wait, they have a defense?; Trent Edwards will continue getting his schwerve on; Reggie Bush isn't very good; Drew Brees spends too much time on doing huddle chants. Long story short, I am going to go against the Saints every single week until they lose - I want to be ahead of the shit-train that is eventually going to make it's way into N'Orleans. Then I can say "you heard it here first".
Bengals (+4.5) OVER Steelers; Bengals (+0) OVER Steelers
I picked the steel curtain last week, and they disappointed. I think Carson Palmer is coming into his own, Cedric Benson is overlooked, and Eight-Five is thinking up newer and crazier ways to celebrate in the end zone - he knows that to get there he has to perform and without the HoushJuice (TJ Houshmandzadeh) he can be the primary target. Willie Parker is still in my DONE column, but the Steelers don't seem to subscribe the to "Doing Work-Done Working" weekly pamphlet by BuDaProductions. GUT CALL! Get used to 'em!
Broncos (+1.5) OVER Raiders; Broncos (+0) OVER Raiders
It's all my discrimination for men and women with their first names beginning with "Ja". They have a lot to live up to. They have to perform really well for me to accept the fact that their name is stupid. This moron didn't fall from his mother's stupid-tree. The Raiders playbook has been "dumbed down" to accommodate JaMarcus's lack of understanding - technically, this is false. I have no proof of this, but you should assume that it's 100% true and spread it around the nation as such so that it has a degree of "fact by association" by the time they play on Sunday. On a serious note, the Broncos look very good. I don't think Orton is that bad, in general quarterbacking terms, and he has a lot of weapons on his offense.
Dolphins (+6.5) OVER Chargers; Dolphins (+0) OVER Chargers
I don't know I've gone on "BuDa-Record" about this, but in 2007 when Phillip Rivers lost in the playoffs (before Eli was entered into NY Giants Football lore) he freaked out and flipped out fans and exposed himself as a douchebag. At THAT point, I decided I was totally okay with the trade the Giants made and happy to not have Rivers as our quarterback. Still hate that guy, plus he throws like the NFL version of Johnny Damon. No LDT against a winless Dolphins team - Dolphins all the way.
8:20PM/ET
Cardinals (+1) OVER Colts; Cardinals (+0) OVER Colts
The Colts are the worst looking undefeated team out there. They owe to the nation to lose. Beyond Reggie Wayne and Peyton Manning, I just can't trust them. Addai fucked me over in almost all my fantasy leagues last year, and the Cardinals have yet to really turn it on.
Monday September 28, 2009
8:30PM/ET
Panthers (+9) OVER Cowboys; Cowboys (+0) OVER Panthers
Unfortunately, the Cowboys aren't that bad - just Tony Romo. Marion Barber in or out doesn't matter in this matchup because Delhomme is just that bad. More annoying to be in the fact that ESPN loved talking about how now Monday Night Football is earlier than ever - but 8:30PM is not THAT early, AND there are so many commercials that I just naturally view the MNF announcers as whore's - same with Sunday Night Baseballers. John Miller and Joe Morgan turning tricks in the booth with Steve Phillips staring in awe (he isn't very familiar with the game of baseball, so he just has to watch and train.