I was considering working on a very long post, but knowing that no one will read the whole thing, and also that I don't have the patience to break down each position, I want decided to start a little mini-series of the lessons learned from the 2009 football season for future fantasy draft picks.
First up - the Quarterback postion.
In one of my leagues (that I am currently in first place by two games, and headed towards another win and a week high in points for my league) I decided to go into the draft and not draft a quarterback in the high rounds. I wanted to wait until the 5th or 6th round for Aaron Rodgers, or wait until the 7th or 8th for someone else. I didn't get Rodgers, but dammit, that would have made me look like a fucking genius. I ended up with Matt Ryan and Carson Palmer as my two quarterbacks in a 10 team league. My belief was that the difference between the No.1 quarterback and the No.10 or even No.15 quarterback wouldn't be worth the draft pick. Let's break down the current fantasy points earned, and I will follow up following Week 16.
Top 30 Quarterbacks as follows:
*NOTE* ALL POINTS ARE PRIOR TO THE 2009 NFL WEEK 12; SCORES ACCORDING TO ESPN STANDARD SCORING
Rodgers, Aaron - 207
Brady, Tom - 192
Manning, Petyon - 189
Brees, Drew - 178
Schaub, Matt - 175
Favre, Brett - 171
Roethlisberger, Ben - 168
Rivers, Philip - 159
Warner, Kurt - 157
Romo, Tony - 154
Palmer, Carson - 146
Manning, Eli - 144
Cutler, Jay - 138
McNabb, Donovan - 130
Ryan, Matt - 128
Flacco, Joe - 127
Garrard, David - 125
Orton, Kyle - 119
Cassel, Matt - 108
Campbell, Jason - 107
Stafford, Matthew - 106
Hasselbeck, Matt - 101
Sanchez, Mark - 88
Delhomme, Jake - 74
Henne, Chad - 66
Edwards, Trent - 63
Smith, Alex - 62
Bulger, Marc - 60
Hill, Shaun - 54
Young, Vince - 48
Next in line - Kerry Collins (47), Kevin Kolb (42), and Brady Quinn (38)
So what does all of this mean?
The difference between the No.1 Quarterback and the No.10 Quarterback is 53 points, and over the 11 weeks that these points are covering, that averages to about 4.8 points per game. In a 10 team league near you, there is a good chance that the top QB went in the 1st, 2nd or 3rd round and most likely not later than the 4th round. The 10th Quarterback was likely taken in the 7th, 8th or 9th.
One unfortunate statistic is that Brett Favre is the 6th best quarterback to the beginning of Week 12 with 21 Touchdowns and 3 Interceptions - 3?! Last year, ALL LAST YEAR, he went 21 TDs and 20 INTs. Where does he get off? In Week 12 he got another 3 touchdowns - bastard.
Most leagues are 10 teams, and the next league size that is the most common is a 12 team league. The top 30 quarterbacks show the top 10 for the league, the 10 most likely backups, and the top 10 waiver wire candidates.
The difference between Aaron Rodgers (No.1) and Jason Campbell (No.20) is 100 points, which averages out to about 9 points per week. The difference between Jason Campbell and the next best option, which should be a free agent or available through the waiver wire, is Matthew Stafford who has one less point. If you wait until the last pick in the draft, or after the draft, to acquire a quarterback, obviously it will cost you, but is there no guarantee that a high draft pick will guarantee you highest points.
Take a look at Aaron Rodgers, Matt Schaub and Brett Favre. During drafts, Favre was probably going a lot higher than most people thought, and there's a good chance that in shallower leagues he spent some time in free agency. Rodgers was pre-ranked at No.5 QB, well below the top ranked QB in Drew Brees (pre-ranked overall at No.4) and has 32 points more than Brees (average of about 3 per week more).
In future drafts I will probably continue to hold off on drafting a quarterback. At least in 10 team leagues, it seemed to work out well. In my 12 team league I am in dead last and drafted Donovan McNabb and Matt Cassel. Yikes.
No comments:
Post a Comment