So you know that periodical I was going to start doing next week, fuck it, I'm doing it right now!
Here's how it works - I will list players that are Doing Work, and I will list players that are Done Working. More or less, this is not only a snap shot of the NFL, but also my thoughts on their career. It's both a power poll of players I think are red hot (and will probably stay that way) and player I think are broken down (and no mechanic is fixing them).
For now, I'll list 5 players in the Doing column - for the 5 quarters of ball these beasts practice and play for - and I'll list 5 players in the Done column - for the 5 days of practice they'll be lucky to get on the scout team for.
First up, the DONE Column.
5. Fred Taylor - Running Back - New England Patriots
This guy hasn't been an effective for fantasy purposes for over a year. Plus, he's having surgery on his ankle. Is he DONE forever, I honestly don't think so. I think he will be out for a few weeks and come back with some effectiveness in the Patriots offense by the end of the year. Don't think that this guy is the comeback kid though. He's only 33 years old, but honestly, when I look at the guy I wouldn't disagree with you if you told me he was 40.
4. Jake Delhomme - Quarterback - Carolina Panthers
I like Delhomme. He's like a suckier Chad Pennington - and you know how I loves me some Chad Pennington! He can throw deep, and he has receiver Steve Smith (formerly known as the good Steve Smith, now just, "Steve Smith"), running back D'Angelo Williams, a decent defense and some other weapons on offense. How is he done with all those weapons? I'll answer that question with another question, and that's where the answer lies... How has he performed this poorly with all of this at his disposal? Another question: If he's performed so poorly recently with the tools, what is he doing that will suddenly make this turn around? He took this team to the NFC Championship - I think we can pinpoint this guys ceiling, now where's the basement?
3. Willis McGahee - Running Back - Baltimore Ravens
He has been in the league for 7 years, he's 28 years old. What am I honestly thinking? It's his injuries. One of the most promising prospects coming from college, Willis busted his knee in his last game in college. This was a game changer for this guy. He basically had to learn how to walk again. I don't want to take anything away from him, but I think he's playing with borrowed time. His best year production-wise I think was 2007. Last year was terrible, and this year he is playing second fiddle to Ray Rice (the guy who SHOULD have revitalized the 'Cuse). He is getting the goal line touches, so he has less carries, less yardage, more touchdowns. The classic fantasy vulture. Big Fat LenDale White and Willis McGahee are in the same boat now. I think the contact takes its toll sooner rather than later. His current Yards-Per-Carry statistic is 5.4. His career average is 4.0, and his career high is 4.1. In other words, dudes playing out of his mind right now - the wheels start falling off.
2. Willie Parker - Running Back - Pittsburgh Steelers
Willie has been in the league for 6 years, he's 29 year old, and he's DONE. Completely done. He's not number one only because of his age. That's it. Career average of 4.3 yards per carry, he is currently performing at a horrendous 3.1 yards per carry clip. His career high is 4.7 in 2005 - Jerome Bettis was still the primary back. Willie's best year was 2006, but saw a drop in yards per carry, and it has dropped consistently since. 2006 he played all 16 games, 2007 played 15, 2008 played 11, and so far has played 3 out of 4. He has a toe injury this year and missed practice this week. Parker is not a McGahee that has both speed and power, he's all speed. Look at LDT from last year to see what happens to a running back who has toe problems.
1. Jamal Lewis - Running Back - Cleveland Browns
Jamal is 30 years old and has been playing for an amazing 10 years. Congratulations pal. You'll notice a lot of running backs in my DONE column, and that's because traditionally (from the research I've done) running backs have a much shorter shelf life as compared to other players on the field. QBs can get hit and get a concussion, or get their knee ripped apart (Tom Brady stylee), but running backs bread and butter is taking the rock into the biggest and baddest looking guys on the other team between 20 and 30 times a game. That's intense. Jamal actually missed all of 2001 with an injury, the fact that he came back from that totally goes against the grain. I mean, this guy was a workhorse. He has been a limited participant in practice this week, and Jerome Harrison has been moving the rock well. Dudes done.
Next up, DOING Column.
5. Steve Smith - Wide Receiver - New York Giants
He became the 2008 go-to receiver for Eli Manning, traditionally on 3rd down. Smith has performed so well lately that he has forced the sports world to migrate towards referring to him as "The Good Steve Smith" and referring to Steve Smith from Carolina as "The Other Steve Smith". Is this legitimate? Is it warranted? Yes. He has the hands of Amani Toomer, he is an impeccable route runner, and now he's runner deeper routes (that's what she said). Beyond all of that, Eli is looking for him. Check this: 57 for 574, and 34 for 411. The first is Steve's receptions and yardage from 16 games of play last season, and the latter is Steve's receptions and yardage from 4 games of play this season. On the flip side, people now will look to contain him. Fortunately for Steve, they won't be able to. He's shown he's fearless, and he can run any route. He is the Wes Welker threat from 2007 mixed in now with attributes of a Santana Moss for a deep threat. Where's the ceiling? Have we seen it?
4. Vincent Jackson - Wide Receiver - San Diego Chargers
2007 was supposed to be Jackson breakout year. Didn't happen. 2008 was supposed to be another breakout year. Not necessarily a breakout, partially because it was expected, but it definitely established him as a threat in that offense. With Antonio Gates, and LDT, would Phillip Rivers ever find Jackson? The answer is yes. Jackson in 2009 has proven that he is a beast. He has broken out, and now is establishing himself as a top receiver in the league. He leads the Chargers in receiving, and trails Gates in receptions 24 to 20. Rivers is looking for him, he's a big strong target, and Jackson is making himself not only open, but making Phillip Rivers look good - which isn't easy to do. Jackson is 26 years old. Dude is not a human. He's actually a transformer, and he's going into Beast Mode.
3. Kevin Smith - Running Back - Detroit Lions
This guy was injured this past week with a shoulder injury, and yes he had 30 yards on 19 carries, but I think that's his low point. Matthew Stafford has a knee injury which will put more pressure on the stars of that offense, Kevin Smith and Calvin Johnson, to do the work. He is 22 years old in his sophmore year, has another tough matchup this week, but I think this guy is a legitimate force.
2. Pierre Thomas - Running Back - New Orleans Saints
I didn't want to put him here because he's on Bye for Week 5, but he came back from a knee injury in Week 3, rocked the shit, and rocked the shit again in Week 4. He has been effective where Reggie Bush has not. He is the proven stud, whereas Reggie is now back with Kim Kardashian. Women make the knees weak. It's not because of all the fucking, but because of the nagging. Common misconception. In any case, the Frenchman (that's now his nickname according to me) is 24 years old, and it's not like he's just started to be effective. In 15 games last he had 129 carries, averaging 4.8 yards per carry, and amassed 9 touchdowns. This was before he was the primary featured back and NO was still trying to groom Reggie Bush into something he's not. The Frenchman is a stud running back, AND he plays on a team where Drew Brees is throwing the ball all over the place. Brees would have made the list, but like I said about Thomas, he's on Bye, but the Frenchman was too awesome not to bring up.
1. Brandon Marshall - Wide Receiver - Denver Broncos
25 years old with talent and a bad attitude turned respectful wide receiver with a new lease on his football life, yeah, I like that. Probably cheesy as hell, but he's probably learning about the feelings of success under different circumstances right now. He has been working very hard since his team enforced suspension during the pre-season. Last year in the beginning of the season he had a suspension, and has always had problems off the field. He has as much talent as anyone in the league, and he also has a new quarterback that needs options to throw to. We've seen what happened with Tony Romo and Terrell Owens, Eli Manning and Plaxico Burress, Peyton Manning and Marvin Harrison. New quarterbacks need a go-to receiver. They need to establish themselves on the team, and they tend to throw to one player that they get the timing with first. It just happens that way. It also happens because talented receivers have a knack for getting open, and for making the quarterbacks look good. Brandon Marshall (the talent portion) could make any quarterback look amazing. The issue has always been his off the field issues and personality problems. Maybe I'm wrong, but I think he's moving past those issues, and is basking in the teams early success. Expect his status in Beast Mode to remain as such for a few weeks to come. In 2007 he had 1325 receiving yards and 7 touchdowns, 2008 brought 1265 receiving yards and 6 touchdowns. Last year was a "down year", and this year he already has over 200 yards receiving from 16 receptions. Now Orton's looking for him. I really like Brandon Marshall.
DOING WORK (at the top)
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DONE WORKING (at the bottom)
BMarsh
Frenchman
Silent Bob
VJax
Good Steve
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Fred Taylor
Jake Del-Homo
Willis McGahee
Willie Parker
Jamal Lewis
Other notable runner ups for the DONE/DOING columns: Chris Johnson, Adrian Peterson, Adrian Peterson (CHI), Matt Schaub, Andre Johnson, LaDanian Tomlinson, Cedric Benson, Drew Brees, Chad Ochocinco, Carson Palmer, Calvin Johnson, Thomas Jones, Michael Turner, Reggie Bush, Marion Barber III, Ahmad Bradshaw, Roy E. Williams, Dwanye Bowe, Darren McFadden, Larry Johnson, Brian Westbrook, and Antwaan Randle El.
I have a predisposition to put running backs on the DONE list a lot earlier than other players because of what I believe to be a short career span as effective backs, especially in a primary back role.
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